A machine tool is a machine that processes blanks or workpieces of metal or other materials to obtain the required geometry, dimensional accuracy and surface quality. Machine tool is the machine that makes the machine, which is the main feature of the machine tool that is different from other machines,
A machine tool is a machine that processes blanks or workpieces of metal or other materials to obtain the required geometry, dimensional accuracy and surface quality. Machine tool is the machine that makes the machine, which is the main feature of the machine tool that is different from other machines, so the machine tool is also called the industrial mother machine. CNC machine tool is a machine tool that uses digital information to control the movement of the machine tool and its processing process. It is a modern mechatronics equipment with high efficiency, high precision, high flexibility and high automation. According to the material processing method, the industrial mother machine can be divided into metal cutting machine tools, metal forming machine tools, special processing machine tools. Among them, the metal cutting machine tools include single function machine tools such as lathes, milling machines, grinding machines, as well as machining centers with tool libraries and automatic tool changing devices, so that a variety of different machining operations can be realized.
CNC machine tool upstream industry mainly supply metal plate welding parts, castings, precision parts, functional parts, CNC systems, electrical components and so on. Precision parts mainly include spindle unit and lead screw, wire rail, bearing and other transmission parts, functional parts mainly include CNC rotary table, tool library, manipulator, gear box, milling head, tool holder and so on. Numerical control system includes driving device, control and detection device, etc. The downstream use of CNC machine tools is very wide, covering many important areas of the national economy, such as aerospace, mechanical equipment and so on.
At present, China's low-end CNC machine tools are basically self-sufficient, and the mid-end CNC machine tools are basically replaced by domestic production, but the localization rate of high-end CNC machine tools is still at a low level. According to Corde numerical control announcement, as of the end of 2022, the domestic high-end machine tool localization rate is less than 10%. According to the data of the China Machine Tool Industry Association, the CNC rate of metal cutting machine tools in 2023 is 45.5%. In developed countries, the CNC rate of Japanese machine tools is maintained at more than 80%, and the CNC rate of machine tools in the United States and Germany is more than 70%, compared with the domestic machine tool numerical control rate.
The current domestic machine tool industry can be roughly divided into three echelons, of which: the first echelon: a long history, the strength of foreign enterprises, the main business is high-end CNC machine tools, such as Japan's Yamazaki Mazak, Germany TrumPF, Demagissen precision machine, the United States Mag and so on. At present, most of them are through investment or joint ventures in China; The second tier: domestic first start, and have a certain technical strength, financial strength and brand influence of private enterprises and state-owned enterprises. From the earliest state-owned enterprises "18 Arhats", to now such as Haitian Seiko, Genesis, Newey numerical control and other new main force private enterprises; The third echelon: small scale, low technology content of the main low-end CNC machine tools of small private enterprises. The product price is cheap, the product processing precision requirements are not high, mainly used in general civilian products, automotive parts rough processing and other fields.
2, industrial machine market: focus on the head of the country
2.1 Global market: China ranks first in global production and consumption
Production: According to German VDW data, the global machine tool output value in 2022 is 80.3 billion euros, +12% year-on-year. Among them, 56.6 billion euros of metal cutting machines and 23.5 billion euros of metal forming machines (the ratio over the past five years is about 7:3). The top ten countries and regions in terms of global machine tool output value in 2022 are: China (excluding Taiwan, China) Similarly below) (25.7 billion euros), Japan (9.9 billion euros), Germany (9.7 billion euros), Italy (6.5 billion euros), the United States (5.6 billion euros), South Korea (4.3 billion euros), Taiwan (3.9 billion euros), Switzerland (2.8 billion euros), India (1.3 billion euros), Austria (1.2 billion euros).
China is currently the world's largest machine tool producer, accounting for 32% of global output value in 2022, followed by Japan (12%), Germany (12%), Italy (8%), and the United States (7%).
Consumption: China is currently the world's largest consumer of machine tools, accounting for 34% of global machine tool consumption in 2022, followed by the United States (12%), Italy (7%), Germany (7%), and Japan (5%).
Exports: As an old machine tool power, Germany and Japan are in the forefront of machine tool exports, and the global export share in 2022 is 17% and 17% respectively. From 2020 to 2022, China's machine tool exports have grown rapidly, and the share of China's global machine tool exports in 2022 has increased to 14%, and among the top 5 machine tool exports in the world, only China's machine tool exports have exceeded the 2018 level. It is worth mentioning that according to the VDW caliber, a considerable part of the export value comes from the top machine tools produced in China by machine tool manufacturers such as Germany, Japan and Switzerland.
Imports: China and the United States are the world's top two machine tool importers, with the promotion of domestic substitution, China's machine tool imports have declined steadily, to 6.26 billion euros in 2022, slightly down 0.4% from 2021; The US machine tool imports in 2022 amounted to 5.90 billion euros, an increase of 36.2% from 2021.
Machine tool supply and demand balance in major countries and regions: As the world's largest consumer of machine tools, China is basically self-sufficient, and the import volume of machine tools is basically the same as the export volume in 2022, and most domestic consumption is supplied by the local supply. Germany and Japan's machine tool exports are far greater than machine tool imports, and the trade surplus in 2022 will reach 4.5 billion euros and 6.3 billion euros, respectively. Machine tool imports in the United States are much larger than machine tool exports, with a trade deficit of 4.1 billion euros in 2022. And South Korea, China's Taiwan region, Switzerland 2022 machine tool trade surplus reached 1.3, 2, 1.8 billion euros.
Export ratio: In 2022, machine tool exports in Japan, Germany, Taiwan and Switzerland account for more than 70% of production, which is a typical export-oriented economy; Italy, South Korea machine tool exports accounted for around 50% of production, internal and external needs are more balanced; China, the United States machine tool exports accounted for 23% of production, 33%, with the continuous growth of domestic machine tool exports, the proportion of domestic machine tool exports still has greater room for improvement.
Import ratio: In 2022, Mexico, Turkey, the United States, India machine tool imports accounted for more than 50% of consumption, of which Mexico, Turkey machine tool consumption import dependence reached 98%, 89%; The import dependence of German machine tool consumption also reached 49%; The import dependence of China's machine tool consumption is 24%.
China's CNC machine tool industry has experienced the start, expansion, integration, rapid development and transformation and upgrading, and has now formed a complete category and fully functional manufacturing pattern.
According to the China Machine Tool Industry Association, the production of metal processing machine tools in 2023 in China is 193.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1%. Consumption fell 6.2 percent year on year to 181.6 billion yuan. According to VDW data, China's import dependence on machine tool consumption dropped from 33% in 2018 to 24% in 2022.
From the perspective of the industry cycle, the machine tool presents a replacement cycle of about 10 years. In 2009, the implementation of "04 special" injected new impetus into China's machine tool industry, and China's metal cutting machine tools formed a high output peak in 2011/2014. With the arrival of the 10-year replacement cycle, it is expected that China's machine tool industry will usher in large-scale replacement demand. According to the Japan Machine Tool Industry Association, Japan's machine tool orders from China basically show a small cycle of 3 years.
